As was widely expected, the battle for whole-of-year supremacy in Australia’s new vehicle market is a two-horse race as 1999 draws to a close.

The industry’s retail report, VFACTS, issued today for November sales results by the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries, shows Holden leading Toyota by 3,000 sales, or just 0.4 of a percentage point.

They are slugging it out in a market stifled by consumer uncertainty over the forthcoming Goods & Services Tax, though last month’s sales volume of 69,923 new vehicles was an increase of 8,667 (14.1%) on October (61,256 vehicles). However, it was down 354 vehicles or -0.5% on November 1998 (70,277 vehicles).

The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries is forecasting a total volume for 1999 of 770,000 vehicles.

Ho-ho-ho?
Pre-Christmas sales offers will no doubt be aimed at over-riding the GST uncertainty to produce the 56,008 sales required during December to match that forecast. (The December total last year was 71,562 vehicles.)

The year-to-date total of 713,992 vehicles is currently below the same period in 1998 by 3.0% or 22,115 vehicles. Biggest contributor to the fall is the Passenger Market, which at 497,513 vehicles is down by 35,102 vehicles (-6.6%).

Only three Passenger segments are running ahead of last year - Prestige, up 1,195 (4.7%), Luxury car, up 109 (0.6%) and People Mover up 59 (0.9%). All other segments failed to achieve their 1998 volume levels.

The biggest nosedive is taken by Light car, down 14,999 (-27.3%); Upper Medium car is down 9,954 (-5.1%); Medium car, down 6,350 (-13.4%); Small car, down 3,693 (-2.1%) and the Sports car segment is down 1,469 (-17.2%).

While general consumers agonise over how many dollars they’ll save by waiting for the GST (apparently overlooking the fact that their trade-ins will most likely also fall in value), the main factor holding the market together seems to be the business sector.

Business as usual
Investment in equipment is going on regardless, and the Light Truck Market at 198,230 vehicles, is now running 12,376 vehicles (6.7%) ahead of 1998 in year-to-date terms.

This Market growth continues to be driven by the Pick-up/Cab Chassis 4X2 segment which is up 4,343 (11.0%), All Terrain wagon, up 7,147 vehicles (8.2%) and to a lesser extent the Pick-up/Cab Chassis 4X4, up 1,076 vehicles (2.9%) and Van, up 582 (3.1%).

The other two segments in this market are performing below 1998 levels, with 2.5 Tonne truck down by 600 units (-47.4%) and Light Bus, down 228 units (-17.0%).

Adding further weight to the business sector’s contribution, the Heavy Truck Market at 18,249 vehicles is ahead of the same period in 1998, up 611 deliveries or 3.1%.

Two segments contributing significantly to this were 3.5 Tonne Truck, up 857 (14.3%) and 7.5 Tonne Truck, up 291 (6.3%). The 3.5 Tonne Bus segment rose maginally by 16 vehicles (2.2%), while 15 Tonne Truck, down 315 (-5.4%) and 7.5 Tonne Bus, down 238 vehicles (-53.1%) failed to ride the business wave.

November details
The Passenger Vehicle market was down 1,804 vehicles or -3.6%. Segments that actually improved on their November 1998 result were Prestige car, up 549 (27.9%); People Mover, up 243 (45.7%); Sports car, up 150(18.1%) and Luxury car, up 126 (7.0%). Interestingly, the Honda S2000 competes in the Luxury segment and last month led it convincingly, slid to fifth place once initial orders were filled.

Heading downwards were the Medium car segment, down 974 (-25.2%); Upper Medium car, down 881 (-4.4%); Light car, down 832 (-15.1%) and Small car, down 185 (-1.2%).

Reflecting total sales YTD, the Light Truck market enjoyed a healthy increase of 1,323 vehicles or 7.0% over November 1998, with all segments sharing in the growth. And the Heavy Truck market is up 127 vehicles or 7.1%, when compared with the same month in 1998.